Environment Network (UPEN)
January 2013
New models to predict climate change under development
A team at the University of Portsmouth, led by Dr Gary Fones from the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences (SEES), and working with Drs Michelle Hale (SEES) and Joy Watts (School of Biological Sciences) is part of a £1 million NERC funded collaborative project.
Results of the study by the scientists from the Universities of Portsmouth, Southampton, East Anglia and the National Oceanography Centre will be used to create statistical climate models that will allow us to better predict climate change over the next 100s of years.
The complementary skills of this team of scientists, which includes nutrient chemistry, sediment biogeochemistry, phytoplankton ecology, sediment dynamics and sensor technology are providing a powerful multidisciplinary approach to improving our understanding of macronutrient fluxes.
In addition to studying macronutrient cycles, the team also has projects that include marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems.
Their research on Iron Biogeochemistry in the High Latitude North Atlantic is an example of how the study of nutrients could represent an opportunity to better understand climate change. We know that the concentration of carbon dioxide has increased significantly since the start of the industrial revolution as a result of burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Carbon dioxide influences the climate on earth and its concentration is now so high that the earth's atmosphere is warming and the weather is becoming more extreme. Recently it has been discovered that the phytoplankton in many regions of the world's oceans are lacking Iron (which in turn can limit growth). Therefore, the phytoplankton does not remove as much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as it could do under ideal conditions.
This study is investigating whether Iron is limiting phytoplankton growth in the North Atlantic at higher latitudes. The results of the project will provide us with a better understanding of the role that nutrients like Iron play in the growth of phytoplankton cells in the ocean.
Further innovative and original research from the group studies storm impact on river pollution.
Since the climate is changing and the intensity and frequency of storms are likely to increase the importance of this work is crucial.
Rivers and estuaries are being affected by pollutants from drainage, crops and fields. Excess nitrate and phosphate is being found in rivers. This pollution kills fish while increasing the growth of red tides, which are a poisonous algal species. Algae have the detrimental effect of depleting oxygen in water.
This research represents the most detailed study of macronutrients behavior in the estuarine environment yet attempted.
Results of the study will be used to create a powerful statistical model of the distribution of excess phosphates and nitrates, how they transfer from rivers, through estuaries and into the coastal seas and the role that storms play in this process. The team anticipate that this will allow policy makers to make more informed decisions about how to reduce nitrate and phosphate pollution in our estuaries.
As the central goal of the project is to understand macronutrient behavior against the background of climate change, and most climate models predict increasing storm activity, resolving this uncertainty is clearly of considerable importance.
For more information about Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research: http://www.port.ac.uk/departments/academic/sees/research/marinebiogeochemistry/
For more information on macronutrient cycles:
http://macronutrient-cycles.ouce.ox.ac.uk/index.html
http://www.christchurch-macronutrients.org.uk/