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Forecasting and Modelling

Our expertise is in econometric, economic modelling and forecasting, mathematical modelling and programming and system dynamics modelling.

The way in which we might help you

  • Econometric modelling
    A number of our economists are expert econometricians with a wide experience of using advanced econometrics techniques. Examples of their work includes:
    • Duration Analaysis, using Naval Administrative dataset
    • Forecasting models (performance evaluation, technical and economic efficiency)
    • Discrete choice modelling (choice experiments, consumer preferences)
    • Input-Output modelling (shadow prices and project appraisal)
  • Econometric modelling
    Our Centre for Local and Regional Economic Analysis (CLREA) has produced forecasts of output (GDP) and employment for the main city regions of the central south coast area, including Portsmouth, Southampton and Bournemouth.
    • This modelling is mainly based on input-ouput methodology, which allows detailed sectoral impacts to be determined.
    • In addition, manpower-forecasting models have been developed for the Royal Navy to forecast individual rather than collective economic outcomes as well as hedonic price modelling to determine staff relocation packages.
  • Mathematical modelling and programming
    CERI have individuals with expertise in linear programming and goal programming. The techniques have been applied to both manufacturing (hard) and service (soft) industries.   
    • Economic Efficiency Analysis using Data Envelope Analysis (DEA)
    • Bioeconomic odelling (linear programmng as well as goal programming) 
  • System dynamics modelling   
    Members of CERI also undertake system dynamic modelling including: 
    • Optimisation (alytical hierarchical process, resource allocation)
    • Linear programming (multiple criteria, multi-objective decision making process)

Benefit

As an independent research centre we are to provide a rigorous, clear and unbiased view without the need to satisfy vested interests.

Cost

Cost of employment/hour for the relevant expert. For longer projects government subsidy can often be won.

Our expert in this area

Professor Shabbar Jaffry is Professor of Economics. Shabbar's research interests focus on applied econometrics, manpower issues and economic efficiency. Questions currently being addressed focus on minimising the use of personnel without sacrificing productivity and efficiency. He has seven years experience as a research economist on naval manpower issues. Has successfully completed three MoD funded RN manpower projects and is also the author of the Naval Manpower Econometric Model (also known as the "Portsmouth Model"). Shabbar has managed and worked on more than 20 externally funded multidisciplinary research/consultancy projects in recent years. He is practiced in communicating complex concepts in an efficient manner to non-technical audiences as well as being the author of a wider range of academic articles and book chapters.

Our track record of success

H.M. Royal Navy commissioned a forecasting model of the risks in their manpower planning. More than 40 variables were tested for significance against historical data since 1946 using econometric modelling to identify key drivers and derive a forecasting model of future manpower needs. Qualitative modelling validated the model against future scenarios. The resulting model continues to be used actively by Naval headquarters 5 years later.

For more information, please contact Allyson Hunt.